In 2018, global flat panel display demand is projected to rise by 7.2% year-on-year, reaching 210 million square meters—marking the highest annual growth since 2014, according to IHS Markit. This surge reflects a strong rebound in consumer and commercial demand driven by several key factors.
Ricky Park, head of IHS Markit, highlighted that the shift toward larger screens, declining panel prices, and an anticipated global economic recovery are all set to fuel this demand. He explained that the sharp drop in panel prices during the second half of 2017 will soon translate into more affordable consumer electronics, particularly around the end-of-year shopping season and into early 2018. Lower prices are expected to further drive interest in large-screen products, such as TVs and monitors.
The launch of the 10.5-generation line in the first half of 2018 is expected to significantly boost the supply of ultra-large TV panels, including 65-inch and 75-inch models. Meanwhile, the growing adoption of borderless, flexible OLED screens in smartphones is likely to lead to larger smartphone displays in 2018. Park noted that this trend could encourage consumers to upgrade their devices, creating new demand in the mobile sector.
The flat-panel TV market is also benefiting from replacement demand driven by the digitization of television and radio, which began in the late 2000s. In regions where digital conversion was completed, TV sales saw a sharp increase between 2009 and 2010, with growth rates reaching 10% to 21%, far exceeding the 3% compound annual growth rate seen between 2004 and 2014.
Park pointed out that the typical TV replacement cycle is around 10 years, and a wave of replacement demand is expected in the coming years. Major sporting events, such as the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics and the Russian World Cup in June, are also expected to boost demand for new and larger televisions, further stimulating the global flat panel display market.
He added that panel sales tend to grow faster in even-numbered years when major global sports events occur. This pattern suggests that the market could see accelerated growth in 2018 compared to odd-numbered years.
Additionally, the global economic recovery is playing a supportive role. IHS data shows that global GDP is forecasted to grow by 3.2% in 2018, slightly down from 3.1% in 2017 but still higher than the 2.6% recorded in 2016. Stronger recovery in North America and emerging markets like India, Brazil, and Russia is expected to contribute positively. The rise in non-ferrous metal prices, often a precursor to economic expansion, further signals a positive outlook.
Despite the strong growth in demand volume, the value of the global flat panel display market is expected to be constrained by falling panel prices in the second half of 2017. From 2017 to 2018, the market value is only projected to grow by 1%, reaching $126 billion. This highlights the ongoing pressure on pricing despite rising demand.
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