In 2018, global demand for flat panel displays is expected to surge by 7.2% compared to the previous year, reaching 210 million square meters. This marks the highest annual growth since 2014, signaling a strong recovery in the industry. Ricky Park, head of IHS Markit, highlighted that several factors will drive this growth, including the shift toward larger screens, falling panel prices, and optimism about a global economic rebound.
By the end of 2017, the sharp decline in panel prices began to influence consumer electronics pricing, especially during the holiday shopping season and into early 2018. Lower costs are making large-screen TVs more accessible, thus boosting demand. The introduction of ultra-large panels, such as 65-inch and 75-inch models, is set to increase supply in the first half of 2018, thanks to the launch of the 10.5-line.
Additionally, the growing adoption of borderless flexible OLED screens in smartphones is expected to lead to larger screen sizes in the coming year. Park noted that new large-screen smartphones could encourage consumers to upgrade their devices. Meanwhile, the flat-panel TV market is also poised for growth due to replacement demand, fueled by the digital conversion of TV and radio services that started in the late 2000s.
In regions where digital transition was completed earlier, TV sales saw a significant jump—rising between 10% and 21% between 2009 and 2010, far exceeding the average annual growth of 3% from 2004 to 2014. Park explained that the typical TV replacement cycle lasts around 10 years, and a peak in replacement demand is expected in the coming years.
Major sporting events, such as the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics and the Russian World Cup in June, are also expected to boost demand for new and larger TVs, further stimulating the global flat panel display market. Park pointed out that panel sales tend to grow faster in even-numbered years when major sports events occur.
Moreover, the global economic recovery is playing a key role in supporting panel demand. According to IHS data, global GDP is projected to rise by 3.2% in 2018, following 3.1% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2016. Stronger economic momentum in North America and emerging markets like India, Brazil, and Russia is contributing to this trend. Rising non-ferrous metal prices, often a precursor to economic recovery, also signal positive developments.
Despite the strong growth in demand volume, the value of the flat panel display market is constrained by declining panel prices in the second half of 2017. From 2017 to 2018, the market value is expected to grow by only 1%, reaching $126 billion. This highlights the ongoing challenge of balancing price pressures with rising demand.
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