   Author: Shanghai Securities News Wang Haijun
Since the birth of the world's first semiconductor light-emitting diode in the 1960s, Led Lighting has been hailed as the third revolution in human lighting due to its long life, energy saving, rich color, safety and environmental protection. The benefits of led lighting are obvious. Countries around the world have accelerated the pace of LED lighting to replace traditional lighting with the government's strong support. Japan, the United States, the European Union, South Korea, Taiwan and the Chinese government have formulated corresponding development plans. In order to save energy and achieve sustainable economic and social development, the Chinese mainland formulated the “Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction†on June 3, 2009, and the semiconductor lighting industry complied with the macro policy of energy conservation and emission reduction. Since 2005, the Ministry of Science and Technology has approved five semiconductor lighting industrial bases in Dalian, Xiamen, Shanghai, Nanchang and Shenzhen. In 2007 and 2008, it has successively approved two semiconductor lighting industrial bases in Shijiazhuang and Yangzhou, in terms of policies, taxation and Long-term support for funding.
   In 2004, the global LED market was about 4.7 billion US dollars. According to iSuppli, the growth rate in 2008 was 6.9 billion US dollars. The average annual growth rate is about 13%, and the average annual growth rate of high-brightness and ultra-high brightness LED market is about 20%. Together, they accounted for two-thirds of the total market share, and the market for ultra-high-brightness LEDs alone reached $1.6 billion. Among high-brightness LED products, GaN-based chips compete to expand production capacity due to high added value of products. The production capacity of GaN chips is mainly concentrated in Taiwan and Japan, but the capacity of China and South Korea has grown rapidly and has become an important production area.
   LED industry faces patent competition
   The huge role played by patent technology in the development of LEDs and its unique patent distribution methods, patent transfer, authorization and disputes will greatly affect the future development pattern of the LED industry. The core patents of LED lighting technology are basically controlled by several foreign companies, such as Japan's Nichia, Toyota Synthetic, Toshiba, Lumileds, Cree, and Osram of Germany. These companies use their core patents to adopt a horizontal (simultaneous access to multiple countries) and vertical (continuous improvement of design, follow-up applications) expansion methods, and a rigorous patent network is deployed worldwide.
   For the latecomers of the LED industry in China and South Korea, although the LED industry has already had a certain scale, its development in the patent technology has been greatly restricted by patents. This situation is most prominent in Taiwan. Nichia remains the main sponsor of technology transfer, licensing, and litigation. Due to its dominance in LED blue chip and white LED patent technology, Nichia will continue to dominate in patent transfer, authorization and litigation in the next few years. Although Osram-based European and American companies have a positive attitude toward technology transfer authorization, subject to patent restrictions, the dominant direction of patent licensing is determined by Nichia. In terms of the number of authorizations and disputes, Nichia dominates about 60% of all authorizations and disputes, followed by Osram, which has not changed much in recent years.
   China's LED technology started late, and it is in a relatively passive situation in LED patents. The development situation is not optimistic. As the scale of the company continues to expand, it may be involved in patent disputes due to the attention of major international companies. It is generally expected that there will be no large-scale lawsuits against Chinese enterprises within two years, but in the long run, domestic enterprises have great concerns. With the expansion of domestic LED export scale and the reduction of patent litigation in Taiwan and South Korea, it is not possible to exclude the possibility of large companies such as Nichia transferring patent litigation to mainland Chinese enterprises.
   Global LED market application domain structure
   In 2004, the mobile phone application market accounted for more than half of the high-brightness LED market. With the saturation of the mobile phone application market, the growth rate of the high-brightness LED market will slow down, with an estimated growth rate of around 20% and total market sales of 4.7 billion. Around the dollar. Emerging application markets such as general lighting, automotive headlights, and large-screen LCD backlights will become the new driving force for the growth of the high-brightness LED market. With the promotion of large-screen LCD backlights, LCD backlights accounted for 26% of the market in 2008. The high-brightness LED market has doubled. In 2008, the total sales of the LED market reached 6.9 billion US dollars.
   The future LED market for landscape lighting and general lighting is the fastest growing, and iSuppli expects the market share of landscape lighting LEDs to increase from 2% in 2003 to 8% in 2008. General lighting LED sales in 2004 was $94 million, and will grow to $875 million by 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 52.3%. By then, LED lighting will be important in the global $12 billion to $14 billion lighting market. s position.
   Analysis of LED demand growth in the next 5 years
   China's current GDP maintains rapid growth, but compared with the energy consumption per unit of GDP of international developed countries, China is in exchange for high energy consumption in exchange for rapid GDP growth. This GDP growth mode needs to be changed. The rapid development of China's economy is facing various energy pressures. Solving energy shortage is one of the biggest challenges facing the government.
   The Chinese government has also begun to implement lighting energy-saving plans with the goal of reducing energy consumption by 10% annually by 2010. In the current ratio of lighting electricity to total electricity consumption, it can be seen that the proportion of China's lighting electricity consumption is lower than that of the world's major economically developed countries, and lower than the global average, indicating that the proportion of industrial electricity is relatively high, thus making The energy consumed per unit of GDP is significantly higher than the global average.
   At present, in the LED street lamp market, the proportion of LED lamps used is very small, and there is a great alternative space. Mercury gas street lamps will be replaced by LED lamps due to environmental pollution. At present, mercury gas lamps account for 30% of the market share of LED street lamps, and street lamps are global. The proportion of lighting lamps in countries is between 15% and 40%. In the next 3-5 years, LED street lamps will account for the global LED market share from 1% in 2007 to around 7% in 2011.
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