The first quarter of the appliance industry bottomed out or began to warm up

"Comprehensive feedback from various companies and third-party data point of view, in June this year, the shipments of the home appliance industry did not increase significantly, the entire industry is still a single-digit negative growth. However, we believe that it is at the bottom, and in the third quarter The difference will not be worse." On the afternoon of July 11, Guoxin Securities analyst Wang Nianchun said in a phone interview with reporters that the impact of the energy-saving subsidy policy on June is limited, and it is expected that the effect of subsidies will appear in August and September. Quarterly home appliance shipments may have positive growth in single digits.

Why does the energy-saving subsidy policy that began on June 1 have no clear effect on the home appliance industry? Zhou Yinchen, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo International, believes that after the introduction of the energy-saving subsidy policy, home appliance sales channels tend to digest low-efficiency products first, and this is affected. No significant increase in shipments of household appliances. According to the observation of Guoxin Securities in Shenzhen supermarkets and home appliance chain stores, in June the supermarkets still pushed the three-level energy-efficient air conditioners and some refrigerators, washing machines and other products that did not meet energy efficiency subsidies.

Zhou Haichen stated that from the standpoint of single product, the subsidy for energy saving is not as good as subsidies for home appliances to the countryside, but the subsidy for home appliances to the countryside for more than 4 years is 62.62 billion yuan. This time it is a one-year subsidy of 26.5 billion yuan. It is expected that the effect of policy implementation on the demand for terminals will gradually be seen in July.

According to Orient Securities analyst Guo Yang, energy-saving New Deal is expected to stimulate sales of home appliances of RMB 100 billion this year. However, due to the pre-stimulus policies, there are certain overdrafts in the household appliances industry in rural areas and in urban renewal demand. The incremental pull effect is decreasing compared with previous policies. The probability of all types of household appliances industry returning to 30% to 40% high growth in 2010 is very small.

Taking into account the favorable policies such as energy-saving subsidies, the final bus effect of home appliances to the countryside at the end of the year, the recovery of residential sales, and the lower base number in the second half of the year, many analysts believe that the demand for the home appliance industry will pick up in the second half of the year.

Wang Nianchun believes that the complete machine manufacturers will cooperate with the energy-saving subsidy policy and focus on the introduction of new home appliances, together with the targeted sales promotion activities of home appliance retailers, household appliances consumption will be further expanded. CICC expects that sales of refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, and color TVs will increase by 2%, 7%, 5%, and 8%, respectively, from May to December 2012. In the first five months of the year, sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs fell 6.2%, 6.6%, and 1.1% year-on-year, respectively. Only washing machine sales rose by 2.2% year-on-year.

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