A few days ago, according to the report released by the United Nations, the global economic growth rate in 2017 is expected to reach 3%. In response, several agencies issued a report predicting that the global economy will maintain a stable recovery in 2018. It is expected that three quarters of the world’s economic growth will accelerate. This is also the largest increase in global economic growth in the past 10 years. The year and 2019 economic growth will stabilize at about 3%.
Global economic growth has strengthened and emerging economies have recovered
Recently, the United Nations released the "World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2018" report. The report pointed out that as the fragile factors after the global financial crisis have subsided, policymakers have more room to solve long-term problems that hinder sustainable development. The acceleration of economic growth has increased the need to consider the link between economic growth and environmental sustainability.
The report predicts that the global economic growth rate in 2017 is expected to reach 3%, which is a significant increase from the growth rate of only 2.4% in 2016. It is the highest rate of global economic growth since 2011, and approximately two-thirds of the world’s countries are in 2017. The annual growth rate is higher than the previous year. This improvement is a common phenomenon. Global economic growth in 2018 and 2019 is also expected to stabilize at around 3%.
Increased economic activity is unevenly distributed across regions and economies around the world. Under the background of accelerating economic growth, global inflation is mild. At present, the global investment environment has improved, but due to the increase of policy uncertainties and rising debt levels, it may inhibit a broader investment rebound. If trade protectionism is on the rise, the recovery of world trade may be frustrated. The global financial situation in 2017 has improved, but there are still significant risks and uncertainties in the coming period. Driven by the investment mix of the investment portfolio and the banking sector, the capital inflows in emerging economies have increased. Despite facing even greater challenges, the key indicators of the labor market in many advanced economies continued to improve.
With the global economy picking up and economic and trade activities picking up, the economic growth rate has generally accelerated. The forecast of optimistic trends in the global economy in 2018 has increased. It is based on the fact that the developed countries’ economic outlook is better than market expectations and that other economies will continue to grow. Improved. A number of agencies issued reports predicting that the global economy will maintain a stable recovery in 2018.
Overall, the recent global economic forecast report issued by several authoritative institutions is more optimistic for the economic growth forecast in 2018. In its latest World Economic Outlook Report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised expectations for global economic growth by 0.1 percentage points, to 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively, for the current year and the next year. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also raised its expectations for including China. Growth expectations of major economies. The IMF expects that three-quarters of the world’s economic growth rate will accelerate this year, which is also the fastest-growing growth rate of the global economy in the past 10 years. Similarly, the OECD’s forecast for global economic growth next year is 3.7%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the 3.6% increase in global economic growth this year.
Promote China's Acceleration in the World Economy
In 2017, the economic growth in East Asia and South Asia accounted for nearly half of the global economic growth. In the coming period, East Asia and South Asia will remain the world’s most economically dynamic and fastest growing regions. In 2017, the economic growth in East Asia and South Asia accounted for nearly half of the world, and the regional GDP growth was 6.0%, which was higher than other regions in the world.
After achieving 5.9% growth, the East Asian economy is expected to still have a steady growth of 5.7% and 5.6% in 2018 and 2019, respectively. With the support of moderate inflationary pressures, low interest rates and healthy labor market conditions, personal consumption will continue to be the main driver of economic growth. With the government embarking on major infrastructure projects, public investment is expected to remain strong. Although strong export growth in 2017 is expected to slow down, favorable external demand conditions will continue to support regional prospects.
At the same time, driven by strong personal consumption and robust macroeconomic policies, the economic outlook for South Asia remains stable and optimistic. Positive prospects will help to continuously improve labor market indicators and reduce poverty rates. Monetary policy positions are moderately loose, but fiscal policy still emphasizes infrastructure investment. After achieving a growth of approximately 6.3%, GDP growth in the South Asian region is expected to accelerate to 6.5% and 6.7% respectively in 2018 and 2019. Regional inflation is expected to remain stable and at a relatively low level. Thanks to strong personal consumption, strong public investment and structural reforms, India’s economic outlook remains positive. It is expected that India's GDP growth rate will increase from 6.7% in 2017 to 7.2% in 2018 and 7.4% in 2019. However, the weak performance of private investment is still a key macroeconomic issue.
However, Southeast Asia remains the world’s most economically dynamic and fastest-growing region. China’s contribution to global economic growth alone accounts for about one-third. Driven by China’s economic growth, strong personal consumption, higher exports and loose macroeconomic policies, the regional economy is expected to remain relatively stable and remain at 5.8% in 2018 and 5.9% in 2019.
At present, China's economic development is more resilient, more room for manoeuvre, quality and efficiency improvements, and measures to speed up supply-side structural reforms will also lay the foundation for the steady development of the Chinese economy in the future. This year China's economic growth rate will reach 6.8%, marking the first time in six years that the annual growth rate will accelerate. In 2018, as the Chinese government took the initiative to adjust its policy focus and pay more attention to quality and efficiency, the economic growth rate is expected to be around 6.5%.
In the future, driven by strong domestic demand and loose macroeconomic policies, China's economic growth rate is expected to remain stable. However, considering that China is in the process of balancing economic development, its economic growth rate will decline slightly to 6.5% and 6.3% respectively in 2018 and 2019.
The report pointed out that one-third of global economic growth in 2017 relied on China. Over the past five years, China's annual average contribution rate to world economic growth exceeded the total of the United States, the euro zone, and Japan during the same period.
International institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank, and Goldman Sachs also raised their expectations for the final growth of the Chinese economy in 2017. Li Weiqiao, chief economist of the World Bank’s China Bureau, stated that the Chinese government has adopted a series of policy measures for stability and progress in order to reduce macroeconomic imbalances and control financial risks without significantly affecting growth. In 2017, China had achieved success on multiple fronts and promoted economic rebalancing. The chief representative of the IMF in China, Si Ruide, believes that the Chinese economy has demonstrated strong growth resilience and has presented many new growth drivers, and the economic downward pressure brought about by the reform should be understood.
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