World Solar PV Industry Decade Hedong, Decade Hexi

“The Hedong of the 10 Years and the Hexi of the 10th Year” are about the impermanence of things and the cyclical changes. The original source was “30 years of Hedong, 30 years of Hexi”, because the pace of modern life is much faster, and 30 years will be slowly. It is said as ten years.

10 years is actually a period of time, an era! As soon as 2011 is coming to an end, we will take time back to 2001, and the lens will be locked in the Silicon Valley of the United States. By 2001, Middle-aged Jobs had returned more than three years, and Apple had recovered the glory of the past from the iMAC computer, but it was far from being overtaken.

Jobs needs to think about what to do next. At this time, the dot-com bubble just broke, the Nasdaq index fell more than 50% from its peak, and the new economy suddenly became a mirage...10 years later, we have all heard The old iPod, mobile phone updated to iPhone4, the computer has been drying out to replace the iPad.

How do these happen? Isaacson, the author of "Biography of Jobs," explained this with "delicious shots," and Jobs said: "When everyone is cutting expenses, we instead decide to continue investing when the situation is sluggish. We mainly invest in research and development. We have invented something new. Once the low tide has passed, we are already ahead of our competitors."

The situation in 2011 was somewhat similar to 2001, at least in terms of new energy, a bit like the new economy that year.

The economic environment is not good. Some people are always injured. Various kinds of news appear to be concentrated as if they are good. Solon, an old German solar PV company that had been listed on the market since 1998, filed for bankruptcy. It was once the world's top manufacturer of solar photovoltaic panels. Coincidentally, BP, the old energy giant that was eager to develop new energy, could not stand it and announced that it would shut down its solar photovoltaic business, which has operated for many years. Even if BP loses its patience, does it mean the bottom? China's solar photovoltaic companies, which used to be indefinable, have now reached a dilemma. One step ahead is the abyss and the next step is the sea of ​​fire.

Does the new energy bubble really burst? If we look at the 2001 Internet economy, 2011 is probably not the end of the last day, but a new starting point. Although the Nasdaq index has never returned, the hardware construction that the giant companies entered during the Internet bubble 10 years ago was not wasted. Instead, it supported the rapid growth of the Internet economy in the following 10 years. During this period, with the rebirth of Apple, a company such as Google was born, and there is another Amazon that has not only survived but also lived better. The Internet has announced its entry into the new century (12.26, 0.18, 1.49%). Internet age.

History is always rhyming. Today, like Jobs, 10 years ago, he continued to insist on even reverse investment. While Solon and BP are moving backwards, others are moving forward. That is, Google Inc., which used too many servers and was very sensitive to the cost of electricity, has just announced the investment of 4 solar photovoltaic projects with an investment of 94 million U.S. dollars. By the end of 2011, the total capital of Google’s investment in renewable energy projects may reach 915 million U.S. dollars.

This is the United States, China is also a great number of people who are investing in the market. Almost at the same time as Google, Hon Hai announced that in order to expand the layout of the solar PV industry in mainland China, it will invest 30 million U.S. dollars in Suining, Jiangsu Province to establish Futura Energy Technology and develop solar cells. “In the past, the solar photovoltaic market had a high gross margin, so long as we can enter, we can earn, but now we must rely on the strength of technology, management, supply chain, and next-generation material research and development to make profits in the solar photovoltaic market.” According to Terry Gou, it is now spelled out. When it is time for strength, he will have a long-term layout and never make short-term profits.

What is even more interesting is that the original new energy upstarts could find some comfort in the face of a severe market downturn. Such comforts actually come from Premier Wen Jiabao.

According to the Xinhua News Agency, on December 18, Premier Wen Jiabao inspected business operations in Jiangsu. Sun Zheng of Suntech, Wuxi, said to the Prime Minister that Jiangsu's photovoltaic output value was 200 billion yuan and employed 170,000 people. Suntech has developed rapidly in the past few years, but in 2011, it encountered difficulties, sales growth and prices dropped, and the entire industry began to suffer losses in the third quarter.

The Prime Minister’s reply is: “Strategic emerging industries will also have excess capacity. The difficulties faced by the photovoltaic industry may not be short-lived. The key is that companies must integrate and have a leap in technology. The relevant departments must strategically strengthen research, including development. Planning, technological breakthroughs, industrial policies, etc. Be proactive and do not wait passively.”

"We must actively respond and do not wait passively." This is not only a comfort, but also an incentive. After all, new energy is the focus of strategic planning for emerging industries during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, and policy support will continue to come out, but it will only depend on policies. It is not enough. All new industries are optimistic because they represent the future and the next decade.

Ten years east and west ten years. Industrial investment is a process of prosperity and decline. The extreme of prosperity is a decline, and the decline is prosperous. Thirty years may be too long. In three or five years, it may not be enough. Ten years may be the best time for consideration. .

With regard to this kind of anti-market investment, which is rising and falling, I can give an example here. In 1933, American Reed Hoyt published "The Value of Land in the Chicago Area for a Hundred Years," and he found that those who make the most money in real estate investment are those who bought at a particularly low price during the crisis, but these people usually None of those successful real estate experts, because when the housing prices become cheaper, the flow of funds in the hands of the original experts is also very lacking, copying the bottom is those skinners, retailers and traders, they There is just enough cash flow.

Remember, there is only one type of person that can be copied to the end, that is, those who have cash in their hand when the crisis is most severe. Think about it, who still has cash!