2015 small-pitch LED screen 8 major development trend speculation

In 2014, the display industry, which segment of the product line has more than doubled the scale of development? The answer is "small pitch LED." The meaning of 10 times the growth of small-pitch LEDs in 2014 includes at least doubling the sales scale, doubling the number of employees in the industry, doubling the industry's influence, and doubling the pixel density of mainstream products... These data make small The pitch LED display has become a dazzling star, and it has created a brand new gold rush point for the display industry, especially the engineering industry.
Small pitch LED screen
With the rapid development of the market, the rapid advancement of technology, and the significant increase in influence, what kind of surprises will the small-pitch LEDs bring to the industry in 2015? Let us guess at the beginning of the new year.

1. The market discourse power is completely "Chinese"

The domestic LED display industry is growing up watching "European and American companies." Just five years ago, the global LED display market, Chinese brands can only provide the "cheapest" products. Even three years ago, before 2012, domestic LED screen companies did not dare to mention the name of "small spacing." Because small spacing means high end.

However, in 2014, domestic LED display leader Liard Dang said that "the global share is 70%." Although this data is a "special case data" under the market outbreak, it does not mean that Liard can maintain such a high market ratio in the long run. But this data is enough to illustrate the "real rise" of the domestic LED display industry.

With the help of small-pitch products, the national LED display industry has completely stood at the top of the global LED display industry chain. This is the reality of 2014.

The data that can explain the rise of the domestic LED display industry also include: the gross profit margin of LED display overseas export products is generally about 20-30% higher than the domestic market. Also, the LED display industry is not a traditional "cheap product export and low-cost competition industry", but "high-priced production and quality competition industry."

According to research, there are more than 5 LED screen companies with annual sales of more than 500 million yuan. Most of them are LED screen and lighting system composite enterprises. The gap in the sales scale between these companies and international leading companies has been reduced to twice the role. The entire Chinese Army, in 2014, has sold more than half of the global market (for the first time), and has a market share advantage in the high-end and low-end product lines – the gap is only reflected in the mid-range, relatively large product areas.

The development and progress of the domestic LED screen industry is mainly due to the following conditions: First, the international giants voluntarily give up the low-end market, giving the domestic enterprises the opportunity to accumulate “primary capital”; second, the huge domestic upstream industrial chain, That is, the supporting role of the LED lamp industry chain; third, the domestic domestic market with huge domestic demand, and the driving force of the world's largest independent LED large-screen market; Fourth, the domestic LED screen enterprises are used for innovative industrial spirit and related industry policies. stand by.

There are no fundamental changes in the strengths of the above four aspects. In 2015 and even 2016, these powerful factors will further support domestic LED display products, especially for small pitch products. At the same time, in the industrial discourse power, due to the leading position of domestic small-pitch products, the Chinese Legion is expected to become a global market leader.

2. Technological progress reaches its peak, and the industry faces “technology surplus”

The courage to innovate, this is the key factor driving the domestic LED display industry, especially the small-pitch industry to the forefront of the international. However, the spirit of innovation will come to the by-product.

At the beginning of 2014, the minimum pitch LED screen was 1.2 mm, and the record at the end of the year was already below 0.8 mm. The unit display density has increased by 125%. The speed of this technological advancement is unprecedented.

However, the market demand for small pitch LEDs is not endless. The market assessment believes that products with 0.6, 0.7, and 0.8 mm pitch are sufficient to meet the needs of existing display systems. At present, the pixel pitch of the mainstream high-definition 55-inch TVs in the market is only 0.63 mm.

In addition, the cost of the small-pitch LED display is mainly related to the beading process of the lamp bead and the lamp bead. High pixel density products directly increase these two costs, while also posing a huge challenge to the reliability of the product. This is why the price of a small-pitch LED screen is several times that of a large-pitch product, or even more than ten times.

In 2014, under the background of the breakthrough of the core technology index “pitch” of small-pitch products, the pursuit of smaller spacing products in 2015 will lose market significance. It is expected that the focus of the manufacturer will be transferred to the stability, reliability, display performance optimization, and system engineering optimization of existing products. The new technical highlights of the product will be mainly reflected in the “comprehensive experience”, such as product volume, product structure, customization and so on.

Even, it is not excluded that the small-pitch LED products entered a “relative performance excess” industrial stage in 2015. Product market competition is driven by technology leadership, leading to channels, services, brand leadership, and cost advantages.

3. Average price and gross margin callback, small pitch LEDs must shake hands civilians

If you want to point out a "most significant" feature to a small-pitch LED display in recent days, then this point must be "price." - The price per square meter of more than 100,000 yuan makes the small-pitch LED products almost the most "expensive" display technology.

In 2015, with the increasingly obvious trend of “oversupply of technology” for small-pitch LED displays, as well as the decline of its systematic industrial costs and the intensification of competition in the product market, the price competition of small-pitch LED screens cannot be avoided. The average price is lowered by 2-3 percent, 1.6mm and above, and the price will gradually become civilian, which will be a general trend.

At the same time as the price declines, the industry's gross profit is unlikely to change. At present, the industry gross profit of small-pitch LED screens is concentrated above 30%, and the net profit margin is over 10%. This is a very high level and a level that is difficult to maintain for a long time. The high-margin performance of small-pitch led displays is based on “product scarcity”. However, a very profitable product line is unlikely to attract the attention of more than 40 domestic LED display companies. This will result in a competitive oversupply, which will lead to product price wars: especially those products that are in high demand and whose spacing is not extremely small will be the most competitive.

The decline in the price of small-pitch LED products is good news for the release of its industrial energy. At present, customers who use small-pitch LEDs are roughly divided into two categories: one is that their specific display requirements are not “small-pitch LEDs”; the second category is “rich and willful” customers. Although these two types of markets are not small, they are not "real mainstream". In fact, more potential buyers with small pitches are eager for the “economics” of the product.

In addition, companies such as Liard and Chau Ming also regard the home market as a possible industrial direction. The home market has always been a cost sensitive area. This requires companies to first shake the product cost levers, which may incite the expansion of the home market.

Therefore, the price drop is the inevitable result of the market competition of small-pitch LED screen products, and it is also one of the directions of market demand. There is no suspense in 2015 at this point.

4. Market growth is still the trend of small-pitch LEDs

The small-pitch LED display industry in 2014 showed a relatively high “high market concentration”. Liad, Chau Ming, and Lianjian have almost monopolized the market discourse rights. However, the author believes that this situation will not last long.

First of all, the reason for the current industry to show a concentrated trend is not "demand", but the "early bird has insects" form. Today's so-called giants, which are ahead of most industry companies, rely on the “one step ahead” industry layout: the first to complete product development, take the lead in achieving product scale, and take the lead in launching product marketing campaigns. This time lead, and ultimately performance for the market share of the lead.

Second, the current leading brands have not established strong enough “market share” barriers. On the one hand, small-pitch LEDs are still in the market development stage, and there are still many “virgins waiting to open up”, not to compete in the market. On the other hand, leading companies do not have a monopolistic technological advantage. From lamp resources to surface-mounting processes, pilot companies do not occupy the technological advantage of “forming market barriers”.

The above two points determine that other companies can completely "sit" the followers of small-pitch LED products, and do not even need to worry about the technical bottleneck and directly confront the giant market. Therefore, it is expected that the sales volume of the leading brands of small-pitch products will still increase significantly in 2015, but the market share will be in a downward stage. Small-pitch LED displays will usher in more market participants: the number of companies including manufacturers, channels, engineering and other industrial chain links will increase significantly.

5. Growth is still impressive, but the speed is bound to decline

In 2014, the small-pitch LED market grew very impressively, and a data growth rate of more than 70% was enough to make any other display technology “unpredictable”.

The small-pitch LED display has a special high-speed growth in 2014: First, the market base is small, which is the key point to achieve the growth rate. Second, the ultra-fast technology evolution has successfully supported the scale of market applications. Third, the competitor's response is super slow, especially the slow response of the DLP splicing wall camp, which has become a powerful and powerful factor for the rapid growth of small-pitch LEDs.

However, the advantages of the above three aspects will not continue to exist in 2015. First, 70% of the increase has greatly increased the "base" of the entire industry; second, the technological evolution is gradually reaching the top, the industry must change the growth structure; third, the direct collision of competitive technology will be stronger with the small-pitch LED And become intense.

Therefore, it is predicted that the growth rate of the small-pitch market in 2015 will be reduced to less than 50%, or even only about 40% - but the market does not have to have any "worry" about the decline of this data. Because the market growth of small-pitch LEDs in 2015 is still not significantly lower than 2014 in absolute terms.

In the 2015-2016 small-pitch LED display market, the growth rate will continue to decline, but the absolute increment is relatively stable, which is a high probability event. If such an increase can be achieved, the size of the small-pitch LED market in 2016 will be about twice that of the current one – this data indicates that small-pitch LEDs will still be a large gold mine in the next few years.

6. The combination of vertical and horizontal is inevitable, everyone needs to make up the short board.

Another significant change in the small-pitch LED industry in 2014 was the “combination of vertical and horizontal”.

In March 2014, Liard announced that it would acquire a 25% stake in Hedong Electronics by way of capital increase; in September 2014, Lianjian Optoelectronics spent 950 million yuan to acquire Youtuo and Easystar; in September 2014, Zhou Ming Through the acquisition of the 100% equity of Lanpu Technology; in December 2014, Qinshang Optoelectronics acquired 51% equity of Caiyida; in January 2015, Liard acquired Guangzhou Lifeng Culture Technology Co., Ltd. and Beijing Jinlixiang Arts and Technology Co., Ltd. 100% shares of a company limited by shares...

What do these acquisitions mean? The answer is not short. The LED display and lighting industry are the main businesses of Liard and Zhou Ming. Both industries have shown the characteristics of "high-speed growth" in recent years. This makes it necessary for companies to find ways to deal with the “channel crisis” of “violent expansion of the market”.

Inevitably, small-pitch LEDs have great promise in the field of culture and entertainment. Before Liard introduced small-pitch LED products, it did not have a large-scale expansion of the market capacity of the cultural sector. Through the acquisition of companies such as Jin Lixiang, Liard has obtained first-class market resources and personal connections in the industry. Jin Lixiang also received more reliable upstream industry support. Can be called a win-win situation.

In 2015, small-pitch LED screen companies continue to acquire “channels”, annex “small and medium-sized industry enterprises”, Lianheng IC and processor companies, and expand “market tentacles” is a high probability event. In this context, large-screen companies such as traditional DLP splicing will also expand their market in the field of LED screens in order to compete for survival: the acquisition is also an effective and fast option.

7. DLP is backed by small pitch LEDs, and it’s not impossible

The development of the small-pitch LED market in 2015 is also subject to an external factor. That is how the DLP splicing wall as a major market opponent counterattacks.

The DLP video wall market is not the only offensive market for small pitch LEDs. Small-pitch LEDs have more than 50% replacement for DLP splicing products. This makes it possible for DLP stitching to treat small-pitch LEDs as "full opponents", although small-pitch LEDs do not have to be hosted by DLP stitching.

The technical advantages of small-pitch LED contrast DLP splicing products are mainly seamless, high-brightness and color expression; the industrial advantages of small-pitch LED contrast DLP splicing products are mainly that small-pitch LED applications are widely used, industrial support is strong, and DLP splicing products The core market is too concentrated and small; the advantage of the small-pitch LED compared to the DLP splicing product is that the small-pitch LED is in the price drop channel, and the new technology such as laser light source for DLP will lead to cost increase...

However, DLP splicing walls also have their industrial advantages, this advantage is the advantage of the "customer group." On the one hand, DLP splicing wall companies understand customer needs, are good at public relations, and have good personal relationships with customers; on the other hand, many application areas have good cognition for DLP splicing, which requires products with high stability. Degrees, customers often do not easily select new products.

The market advantage of DLP splicing wall products is actually the "preemptive in time" advantage, not the "inevitable choice advantage." However, these advantages are enough to give DLP splicing wall companies the space to fight back. On the one hand, the price of DLP splicing products can be reduced to maintain the existing market and customers; the other can also actively expand the product line of LCD splicing and LED display, and transform the composite technology route enterprise by relying on the advantages of the customer base. .

In short, in 2015, traditional DLP splicing wall enterprises will inevitably increase the market response to “small-pitch LEDs”, which will lead to the “faction” and “blood lineage” disputes. The development of small-pitch LED displays has brought structural variables.

8. Diversified market development is the normal state of small pitch LED screen

Direct competition with DLP splicing walls is important, but it is not the part that small pitch LEDs must strive for. In fact, the sales of small-pitch LED displays in 2014 have surpassed the domestic DLP video wall market, indicating that market diversity is one of the characteristics of small-pitch LED applications.

Control room and general monitoring room, small pitch LED display are in demand. But the former is the high-end market, while the latter is the low-end industry. One competes with the DLP video wall and the other competes with the LCD video wall. This market pattern will also require the diversification of the price system for small-pitch LED screens.

Digital signage and advertising market, the smallest "main market" with small spacing. The LED screen can be used for flexible stitching, curved surface design, and irregular shape, while having the advantages of high brightness, high contrast and high color performance - these official large size digital signage displays the necessary features.

In the field of culture and broadcasting, it is the “big gold mine” of small-pitch LED screens. Both applications require high performance, high quality, high stability, and of course high price and high profit margins. After using culture and broadcasting as digital signage and advertising, the biggest growth point of small distance is undoubtedly “safe” and lacks “industry opportunities” for competitive technology.

The home market, the smallest imagination of small pitch LEDs. Film culture and high-definition video have successfully promoted the large-scale display of home TV. In this regard, the disadvantage of small-pitch LEDs is the price, and the advantage is the performance of the display above 100 inches. Under the balance of the two, although it is hoped that the entire territory of the industry is impossible, it is not impossible to market the billions of high-end industries.

Second and third tier cities, the closest goal of small pitch LEDs. Although the small-pitch LED display has been developed at a high speed for more than three years, the market position still depends on the first-tier cities. If the demand for the second and third tier cities will be effectively excavated, the doubling of the small-pitch LED display market will almost be a "minute minute".

In summary, in 2015, small-pitch LED companies will be very busy: because there are many potential markets and blank markets must be developed. Market diversification will also be the norm in the small-pitch LED industry.

Summary: For the LED display industry, small pitch LEDs are a very promising product. This product will at least double the size of the LED display industry, and bring unprecedented changes to the entire engineering display industry. In 2014, the industry has already felt the fierceness of this “small gap storm”. In 2015, it was a key moment from small distance to volume change to qualitative change.

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